Hong Kong (CNN Business)中国日益严重的电力供应紧张正在引发家庭停电，并迫使工厂减产, 这可能会减缓该国庞大的经济，并给全球供应链带来更大的压力.

该国工业中心地带的公司已被告知限制能源消耗，以减少电力需求, state media has reported. And supply has been cut to some homes, reportedly even trapping people in elevators.
An "unexpected and unprecedented" power cut hit three northeastern provinces on Monday, according to the Global Times, a state-run tabloid. The newspaper reported Tuesday that power rationing in Heilongjiang, 吉林和辽宁“对人们的日常生活和商业运作造成了重大干扰."

Power shortages have also hit the southern province of Guangdong, a major industrial and shipping hub. 当地官员周一表示，许多公司正试图通过每周工作两到三天来减少需求.

中国国家电网公司周一表示，将“全力以赴打好这场艰苦的电力供应战”," making every effort to secure residential consumption.

China was hit by a similar power crunch in June, but the situation is getting worse because of a perfect storm. Its industries are facing huge pressure from soaring energy prices, and from Beijing to tackle carbon emissions.
世界上最大的污染国正努力实现其碳排放在2030年前达到峰值的承诺. That requires its provinces to use less fossil fuel for each unit of economic output, for example by burning less coal to generate power. At the same time, demand for Chinese-made goods has surged as the global economy emerges from the pandemic. The result: not enough power to go round.
周一，中国东部江苏省南京市一家燃煤电厂的冷却塔里冒出滚滚蒸汽.
主要的国际供应商正准备迎接因短缺和全球航运延误而面临延误的企业受到的影响.
和硕是一家为苹果公司(Apple)生产零部件和组装iphone的台湾公司，该公司周二表示，它正在配合“中国当地政府的政策”，以“激活节能机制”。 and adjust its production line, in response to a request from CNN Business for comment about the power crisis. Pegatron has a big factory in eastern China's Kunshan city, where Taiwanese media has reported that authorities are limiting electricity supply.
Power rationing could create new headaches for the tech supply chain, according to Dale Gai, a director at Counterpoint Research, 尽管可能不会像全球范围内的电脑芯片短缺那样严重，从汽车、洗衣机到其他电子产品，电脑芯片短缺已经严重打击了所有产品.
在通常组装智能手机模块的地区，停电可能会导致一些短期延误.
There is "probably some delay of the components for a week or so," Gai said. "Which still is manageable, but it's a delay."

Cutting growth forecasts

这一冲击甚至促使经济学家下调了世界第二大经济体今年的增长预期.
野村证券(Nomura)分析师将他们对中国2021年经济增长的预测下调了0.5个百分点，至7%.7% on Friday, citing the "rising number of factories" that have had to "cease operations,“要么是因为当地的能源消耗规定，要么是因为煤炭价格上涨和短缺导致的停电
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师周二紧随其后，将2021年GDP增长预测下调至7%.8% from 8.2%，理由是“最近一系列高能耗行业的产量大幅削减”."
They noted "considerable uncertainty" headed into the final quarter of the year, 鉴于中国经济已经因恒大集团(Evergrande)的债务危机而面临风险——这家陷入困境的企业集团引发了一些分析师的担忧，他们担心中国可能出现“雷曼兄弟时刻”.
Energy supply problems aren't new for China. This summer, 中国几个省份警告说，这是自2011年以来中国最严重的电力短缺.
But the latest reports are even more concerning. The acute shortages in parts of the northeast will "continue for some time," reported state broadcaster CCTV.

中国之所以能摆脱疫情的低迷，很大程度上要归功于建筑业和制造业的繁荣:但房地产项目和工厂需要大量的电力来运营, and thus massive amounts of coal.
对基础设施和建设的关注使中国的碳排放量在2021年第一季度创下历史新高, 根据能源和清洁空气研究中心(CREA) 5月份发布的研究，. The agency said that was the fastest rate of growth in more than a decade.
"The economy is much more driven by the industrial sector than the consumption sector," wrote Macquarie economist Larry Hu in a Monday research note. "Unfortunately, 工业部门的能源强度远高于消费部门."
The post-pandemic commodities boom and ambitious climate targets, meanwhile, have driven coal prices sky high, given the increase in demand and decrease in mining. 胡指出，主要用于发电的动力煤的价格今年已经从每吨671元(104美元)飙升至每吨1元左右,100 yuan ($170). 与澳大利亚的贸易紧张局势导致中国设置了从该国进口煤炭的壁垒，这也无济于事.

Ambitious climate goals

Perhaps the biggest contributing factor, according to several analysts, is the drive to meet President Xi Jinping's goal for a carbon neutral China by 2060.

胡指出，中国政府的目标是今年单位GDP的“能源强度”下降3%.
In August, 中国国家发展和改革委员会(NDRC)召集了中国几乎所有主要地区，并要求他们在今年剩余时间内控制或监测其能源消耗和强度.
今年上半年，中国近36个省份和地区中有9个提高了能源强度, according to the agency. That included Guangdong province in southern China, 一个主要的工厂中心，一家木材厂最近因为电力限制将产能降低了一半以上, according to the Global Times.
另外10个省份——包括黑龙江和辽宁——没有达到能源要求, the NDRC said in its August announcement.
“北京在执行能源消耗和强度限制方面前所未有的决心，可能会带来宝贵的长期收益, but the short-term costs to both the real economy and financial markets are substantial," wrote the Nomura analysts.

Keeping control

一些中国官方媒体也呼吁在实现气候目标和允许电力危机失控之间取得平衡.
各地区在控制能源消耗方面“不能太激进”，也不能“急刹车”, read an opinion piece published in the People's Daily, the ruling Communist Party's mouthpiece, on Sunday.
"As this concerns the development of the economy and society, they must pinpoint where they should work on and keep a balance," the piece read. "Otherwise, it will catch people off guard, especially for certain industries, where they might be forced to halt production on short notice."